Daily Archives: September 14, 2007

Coming to terms: six years on
(and seventeen months of Bush still to go)

Malcolm freely admits he is still trying to get a perspective on the madness of these last six years.

The event

He arrived home mid-late afternoon, that Tuesday. Before he was into the house, his wife called out that his daughter was safe. Why? What?

All television channels were rolling the news feed: the smoke and horror of Manhattan, three thousand miles away and five hours time difference.

His daughter should have been going into work in one of the buildings which subsequently collapsed. She should have arrived at the World Trade Center by the PATH link from Hoboken. (Until now, Malcolm had thought that meant “Passage under the Hudson”. He now sees it means “Port Authority Trans-Hudson” Corporation.)

What saved the daughter was the baby, just a few months old, and needing to be delivered to the day-care facility. He had filled his nappy, twice, so she had missed two trains. As a result, and somewhat flustered, she pulled in very late at Hoboken to be told that the PATH was not operating, and that everyone should go home. Hoboken station is right on the waterside, and the plume of black smoke just across the river was only too obvious.

Cell-phones were not working, partly because of the consumer overload, partly because of deliberate official intervention, and partly because the aerials on top of the WTC had been taken out. Her husband was in Dallas, Texas, at a conference. She could not contact him. By some strange dispensation she was able to phone London. So a strange bouncing of messages took place. She phoned London. London phoned the husband’s sister in Los Angeles. She phoned Dallas. And vice versa. And for some time.

The husband, and three New York colleagues, rented a car (the only transportation available, remember) and drove, non-stop, from Dallas to New York: thirty hours, 1550 miles. They were not the only ones.

The daughter assumed that the rest of her team, for whom she felt responsible, could be under the rubble: in fact all were safe, but she would not know that for two days. Other members of her company, with whom she had worked, were on American Airlines flight 77.

That evening, the 9th September, she eventually arrived back at her hometown, and collected the baby from day-care. Later she discovered that the nursery helpers, way past their usual hours, were still caring for two uncollected children. Learning that, she says, was the moment it all closed in on her.

The consequences

Perhaps those subjective recollections were what clouded Malcolm’s objective judgments. Or perhaps he merely went with the flow.

The deposing of a fascist dictator is a good thing, yes? And Saddam Hussein and his Baathist régime were a blood-bespattered lot, who had consciously moulded their structures and methods on the Nazi example.

There was, and is, clear and incontrovertible evidence that Saddam’s Iraq was a military threat, that it had invaded its neighbours, and deliberately and earnestly sought weapons of mass destruction. Nay-sayers should refer to the Supergun Affair, and recognise that Saddam did initiate both nuclear weapons and biological weapons programmes. What the US and UK did not know (because the Iraqi totalitarianism was so opaque) was that these had not been sustainable.

So far, so …

Malcolm is still not sure whether he would not repeat his acceptance of the military option.

Organising the aftermath

When the American and British forces crossed the Rhine in 1945, and brought about the collapse of the Third Reich, what happened next (at least in the Western Zones of Occupation) was well rehearsed.

The US Army had some practical experience: they had administered Mexico in 1847-8, the former Confederacy after 1865, the Philippines, Puerto Rico and Cuba after the Spanish-American War, and the Rhineland after World War I. From this experience, a committee in the War College in 1939-40 had actually produced a manual on administering occupied territory.

Nor were the British, having run an empire, any further behind.

As early as the beginning of 1941 the Intelligence Training Centre of the War Office began courses at St John’s College, Cambridge, “to train officers in postwar reconstruction and other missions incident to military operations in foreign countries“.

Some fifty months later the investment paid off. And three years after that, a new, dynamic and democratic Federal Republic of Germany was up-and-running. And after that came the Wirtschaftswunder.

Anyone who wants to get into this period, in Malcolm’s view, should start with the fiction and romance, and then work back to the history. Leon Uris creamed the popular market with the near-weepie Armageddon, published in 1963, but covering the period from the mid-1940s to the Berlin Airlift. Still available (if only on the second-hand market), still as good as any other historical thriller. For a less emotive, more satisfying read, then it’s John le Carré, including his impression of Bonn as A Small Town in Germany. In passing, for Malcolm, Len Deighton (especially the historical reconstructions Bomber and Fighter, and the marvellous Bernard Samson series) trumps le Carré every time. Philip Kerr‘s revived Bernie Gunther (of whom, doubtless, more anon) also catches the mood.

Au suivant!

And then …

A briefing paper prepared for British Prime Minister Tony Blair and his top advisers eight months before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq concluded that the U.S. military was not preparing adequately for what the British memo predicted would be a “protracted and costly” postwar occupation of that country.

… the memo “Iraq: Conditions for Military Action” notes that U.S. “military planning for action against Iraq is proceeding apace,” but adds that “little thought” has been given to, among other things, “the aftermath and how to shape it.”

Who is thereby seen to be derelict of their duty? Who should be held responsible?

Clearly the American authorities bulldozed their way through (and apparently without) any contingency planning. That implies we can no longer trust the Pentagon’s forward planning (including that of General Petraeus, just this last week) until they prove themselves and their judgments to the contrary.

Equally, the UK systems, under the new Prime Minister, need to be more wary, more transparent, more credible and less credulous in their actions and interpretation of American initiatives.

And now…

A wholesale stream of “I told you so” confessions and self-exculpations are being loosed on the public. As token of that, by courtesy of the New York Times Book Update, Malcolm receives notice of The Terror Presidency (a nice, ambiguous title, that) by Jack Goldsmith. Malcolm regards the New York Times Sunday edition (which arrives in umpteen sections over two days), of which the book section is just one part, one of the journalistic delights of the world. It makes our domestic Sunday Times seem small beer.

Goldsmith was for just nine months, from the autumn of 2003, head of the Office of Legal Counsel (OLC) in the US Justice Department. As such he was, effectively, the main scrutineer of legal opinion on the actions of the Presidency.

Goldsmith was a conservative republican loyalist, and got his job on that basis. Even so he found the White House’s shenanigans unacceptable. Here’s he lays out his stall:

I was briefed on some of the most sensitive counterterrorism operations in the government. Each of these operations was supported by OLC opinions written by my predecessors. As I absorbed the opinions, I concluded that some were deeply flawed: sloppily written, overbroad, and incautious in asserting extraordinary constitutional authorities on behalf of the President. I was astonished, and immensely worried, to discover that some of our most important counterterrorism policies rested on severely damaged legal foundations.

Goldsmith puts that, and himself, in a very specific, significant and physical context: sitting under the framed photograph of a predecessor, Elliot Richardson. Richardson had been ordered by Nixon to sack the Special Prosecutor, Archibald Cox (and so frustrate further investigation into Watergate): Richardson had refused, and honourably resigned.

The New York Times reviewer, Michiko Kakutani, says:

The portrait of the Bush administration that Mr. Goldsmith — who resigned from the Office of Legal Counsel in June 2004, only nine months after assuming the post — draws in this book is a devastating one. It is a portrait of a highly insular White House obsessively focused on expanding presidential power and loathe to consult with Congress, a White House that frequently made up its mind about a course of action before consulting with experts, a White House that sidelined Congress in its policymaking and willfully pursued a “go-it-alone approach” based on “minimal deliberation, unilateral action, and legalistic defense.”

Malcolm sees a sad truth in that; it tells us nothing new. It reinforces all that we felt, and feared about the Bush/Cheney Administration.

For Malcolm, that leaves three areas of questions:

  • How many more of these “revelations” are to come from other White House defectors and discards? Can this Prsidency be besmirched any further? Will this one emerge as the most discredited Presidency of modern times? Or of all time?
  • How can the next Presidency clean the Augean stables, rebuild a relationship with the people (not just the American people, but those of the entire US sphere of influence) and live, like every previous President had to, eventually, within and under the Law? And when will the Supreme Court scent the wind, assert itself, and regain its pre-eminent position in the tripartite system?
  • Can we wait that long?

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Filed under 9-11, Iraq, New York Times, President Bush


Chiaroscuro
from Moltrasio

Here we have the Telegraph comment column regaling us with the deeply-considered thoughts of Iain Dale, Tory blogsmith and man-about-the-hamlet. A bit curious that: Dale’s own blogsite is in the hands of a caretaker (Shane Greer) while he is on holiday on Lake Como (see left).

And very nice it must be there, too.

Dale’s theme is:

Gordon Brown is out to destroy the Tories

Gordon Brown’s political strategy has finally been exposed. Tories have spent the past 10 weeks wondering if they had misjudged the Prime Minister, but now he has unwittingly revealed that far from adopting a “new kind of politics”, he’s using classic old politics to try to skewer the Tories.

Well, that’s as well to know. It would have distressed Malcolm greatly had Gordon Brown been in the business of promoting the Tories. And that “classic old politics” sounds very tasty indeed.

Yesterday’s regal and be-fuschia’d visit of Thatcher to Downing Street was one of the neatest skewerings of recent history, and an object lesson (from both parties) in the trade-craft of the spadassin.

If he wasn’t so obviously a clueless refugee from the 128th Upper-Class Twit of the Year Competition, Cameron might deserve sympathy for such an efficient dissection.

Well, not really.

Yesterday’s outing was a classic. Consider our young fellow-me-lad, coping with foot-and-mouth, while self-evidently himself foot-in-mouth. There he was suggesting:

that pressure had been put on the Chief Veterinary Officer, Debby Reynolds, to declare Britain clear of the virus.

Calling on Gordon Brown to “get a grip” Mr Cameron said yesterday: “I think there is a real question about Government competence.”

The Mail’s Benedict Brogan had a different take on that:

David Cameron gave the BBC an interview on foot and mouth earlier, but for some reason it was not carried by the 6 o’clock news. In it he suggests Gordon Brown is losing his grip on the crisis and that the Government may have put pressure on the chief veterinary officer to declare Surrey was free of the disease. He’s made similar comments to Sky News.

Now, I’ve just asked someone in Downing Street what they made of Mr Cameron’s remarks, and learn that the Prime Minister actually telephoned Mr Cameron earlier to brief him on developments. In fact, Mr Cameron popped up on the telly in the corner of the PM’s office while they were talking. I’m told Mr Brown was somewhat mystified to have Mr Cameron berating him on Sky while he was trying to explain to the Leader of the Opposition the dangers of the media jumping to conclusions. I’m not told how the conversation finished, but something tells me all this consensus malarky is about to get the heave-ho.

UPDATE: Sources say that when Mr Brown and Sir Menzies Campbell discussed foot and mouth later, they compared notes on what they believe is Mr Cameron’s ‘lack of seriousness’.

Malcolm makes a memo: “skewering” and “consensus malarky”, both on the same day. Mixed messages there.

Now, the really interesting reaction is the National Farmers’ Union, the heartland of the Conservative core vote, Malcolm would suggest.

Complaints that the previous restrictions were lifted too quickly? Not a hint. On the contrary, the NFU is pushing for the restrictions on livestock movements to be more localised. Here is the Surrey NFU Chairman on the NFU’s own website:

“This is the time of year when livestock farmers are trading their stock and their income for the year depends on it.
“The Prime Minister was sincerely interested in the issues we raised but the reality is that we have to get on top of the disease first. We did agree that the first priority was to contain and eradicate this outbreak and I am grateful for Mr Brown’s continued commitment.”

Support for David Cameron? None too obvious. In fact, the morning BBC News made noises that “farmers’ leaders are expressing concern about Mr Cameron’s intervention”. That’s another story that seems to have been quietly and quickly spiked.

Cameron’s problem starts by not having a Denis.

Denis Thatcher was a rabid right-winger, and quite happy to play the gin-swilling golfer for the gallery. Behind that bluff exterior there lurked a shrewd business brain, and a discreet occasional nudge on the tiller.

Denis had some grasp of farming. During the 1979 Election Campaign, Margaret Thatcher (and one suspects the media savvy of Gordon Reece played a part) was photographed cuddling a two-day old calf. It was a superb photo-opportunity, and played well to the suburban crowd. Denis, however, and not quite sotto voce, expressed concern for the calf (and that played as well with the real wellie-brigade).

Iain Dale, with whom this entry started, seems to expect Andy Coulson, royal ‘phone tapper extra-ordinaire, to be Cameron’s Gordon Reece, Denis Thatcher and Angelo Dundee:

Coulson’s message to David Cameron, and indeed the whole Conservative Party, must be this: Gordon Brown is out to destroy you. It’s no good adopting a defensive strategy. You can’t just defend your ground. The best form of defence is attack and you must go in all guns blazing.

Gordon Brown does not yet believe the next general election is in the bag, but among his foot soldiers you can smell the stench of complacency.

David Cameron must demonstrate that they are in for the fight of their lives. The next four weeks, I believe, will determine the course of politics for the foreseeable future.

So far, Cameron’s recent form has been very lightweight: an issue a day, and on to the next drubbing. Joe Louis, back in 1940-41, had his “bum of the month club”; so perhaps Dale’s metaphors and time-frame should be over-printed with a blue Absit omen.

Because, at the moment, the main sport is machine-gunning the barrel of stinking Tory fish.

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Filed under David Cameron

This is Blog number 250, of Malcolm Redfellow revivus.

Malcolm was given the Doctor Frankenstein-treatment and renewed his mouthing off, just a year ago.

Has it changed the planet? Did all those little electrons whizz round the cybersphere to any effect, however small?

Is it, indeed, a Brave New World since he came back to be in it?

Let him review the hit-list:

  • David Cameron brought to earth with a minuscule pharp! Check.
  • Some kind of normal civility and much chumminess established in Northern Ireland. Check.
  • The total moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the 43rd President of the United States, all his adherents and all his works, exposed. Check.
  • Supplies of real ale maintained in all key watering holes across North London and the galaxy. Check.
  • The sheer nonsense that is Formula One motor-racing derided and reduced to the irrelevance it should properly be. Check. (Curiously, this posting last March, one of Malcolm’s briefest, seemed to attract as much attention and agreement as any).
  • Democratic socialism established across the known globe. Errr … not quite yet.

So much still to do! Onwards and upwards! Nil bastardi carborundum!

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