A blue-bottomed baboon would get elected here, purely because of its posterior — it would need to have a decent pedigree, but naturally.
Now look closely at the two elections:
- Con 650 (70.3%, down 9.3% since the last full Borough election, but down also from 728 on 9th June),
- Lab 103 (11.1%, +0.1, and up a magnificent two votes since 9th June),
- LD 101 (10.9%, +1.5), up from just 86 since 9th June),
- UKIP 71 (7.7%, +7.7 — and didn’t stand on 9th June).
Yes, it’s all small-scale stuff, but what that shows is, even in this nest of the most sophisticated and most blue-blooded of Tories, there is attrition by UKIP.
Even though, like the baboon, UKIP has some very unpleasant habits.
No wonder Cameron is so ambivalent with his EU-referendum notions.
Even more so, because someone at Tory Central must have read Peter Kellner:
UKIP came fourth in 1999, third in 2004, and second in 2009. Is it possible that in the next elections to the European parliament in 2014, UKIP could come top?
The short answer is yes. Unless there is a big change in fortunes of the main political parties, I expect a close fight between UKIP and Labour for first place, both winning around 25 per cent, with the Conservatives trailing third on around 20 per cent. (The Lib Dems could find themselves struggling to avoid fifth place, behind the Greens; but that’s another story.)